UPSC CURRENT AFFAIRS

18 June 2025

SIPRI Yearbook 2025: India’s Nuclear Arsenal and the Shifting Global Nuclear Order

Introduction

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Yearbook 2025 reports that India now possesses 180 nuclear warheads, surpassing Pakistan (170) but remaining far behind China (600). This development comes amid warnings of a new global nuclear arms race, driven by modernization of arsenals and the erosion of arms control regimes. The topic is directly relevant to the UPSC CSE GS Paper 3 syllabus under “National Security: Nuclear Security, Security Challenges in Border Areas, and Technology in Security”.

Background/Context

• Historical Context: India’s nuclear program began in the 1940s for peaceful purposes but evolved into a deterrence strategy after the 1974 Pokhran test and the 1998 Shakti tests, making India a declared nuclear power.

• Doctrine: India maintains a No First Use (NFU) policy and emphasizes credible minimum deterrence with a focus on second-strike capability.

• Regional Dynamics: India’s nuclear posture is shaped by threats from two nuclear-armed neighbors—China and Pakistan—both of whom are also modernizing their arsenals.

• Global Trends: The expiration of arms control treaties like New START in 2026 and the lack of new agreements have led to a resurgence in nuclear weapon development globally.

Main Analysis

Key Issues and Challenges

• Modernization and Triad Development: India’s arsenal now includes canisterised missiles (enabling faster launch and potential multiple warheads), and a mature nuclear triad—land, air, and sea-based delivery systems

• Strategic Shift: Indications of India moving toward mating warheads with launchers in peacetime mark a departure from its traditional de-alerted posture, potentially reducing response time but increasing risks of accidental escalation.

• Regional Security Dilemma: While India’s arsenal expansion is largely driven by security concerns vis-à-vis China and Pakistan, it also risks fuelling an arms race in South Asia, especially as both neighbors are also enhancing their capabilities.

• Technological Multipliers: The integration of AI, cyberwarfare, and space-based assets is making nuclear command and control more complex and vulnerable to miscalculation or cyber interference.

• Arms Control Crisis: The weakening of global arms control frameworks (e.g., New START, NPT review failures) has led to unregulated expansion and modernization of nuclear arsenals, increasing the risk of miscalculation and accidental conflict.

Implications

• Political: India’s enhanced capabilities strengthen its bargaining position but also attract international scrutiny regarding its commitment to non-proliferation.

• Security: While modernization improves deterrence, it also compresses decision-making timelines, increasing the risk of miscalculation, especially during crises (e.g., India-Pakistan tensions in early 2025).

• Economic: Sustained investment in nuclear modernization diverts resources from other critical sectors.

• Ethical/Environmental: Any escalation involving nuclear weapons would have catastrophic humanitarian and ecological consequences, as highlighted by global concerns over even limited nuclear exchanges15.

Comparative Perspective

• China: Rapidly expanding arsenal (600 warheads, 350 new ICBM silos), shifting toward peacetime deployment of warheads on missiles.

• Pakistan: Focused on tactical nuclear weapons and increasing fissile material production, with a strategy centered on deterring India.

• Global: The US and Russia still hold over 90% of the world’s nuclear warheads, but all nine nuclear powers are modernizing or expanding their arsenals.

Link with PYQs

• Direct Relevance:

  
  

  • UPSC GS3 2023: “The use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) by our adversaries across the borders to ferry arms/ammunitions, drugs, etc., is a serious threat to the internal security. Comment on the measures being taken to tackle this threat.”

    • Link: Both questions deal with evolving security threats and the need for technological and policy responses to safeguard national security.

  • UPSC GS3 2013, 2015, 2018 (various years): Questions on nuclear doctrine, deterrence, and security challenges in border areas.

  • UPSC GS2 2021: “Discuss the role of cooperative federalism in the management of COVID-19 pandemic in India.” (Analogous in terms of center-state coordination required during nuclear emergencies.)

    
    

• Model Question (Based on Current Event):

  
  

  • “In light of the SIPRI Yearbook 2025, critically analyze the implications of India’s expanding nuclear arsenal for regional security and global arms control. Suggest measures to balance deterrence with responsible stewardship.”

Way Forward/Suggestions

• Adherence to Credible Minimum Deterrence: India should maintain its NFU policy and credible minimum deterrence, focusing on survivability and second-strike capability rather than numerical parity.

• Strengthen Command and Control: Invest in robust, secure, and technologically advanced command and control systems to reduce risks of unauthorized or accidental launch.

• Revive Arms Control Dialogue: Proactively engage in regional and global forums to revive arms control measures and promote risk reduction, including confidence-building with China and Pakistan.

• Indigenization and Technological Autonomy: Enhance indigenous R&D in nuclear delivery systems, missile defense, and cyber resilience to reduce external dependencies.

• Transparency and Communication: Maintain transparency in doctrine and posture to prevent misperceptions and accidental escalation, especially during crises.

• Global Advocacy: As a responsible nuclear power, India should champion nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament initiatives at international platforms.

Conclusion

The SIPRI Yearbook 2025 highlights a critical juncture for global and regional nuclear security. India’s measured modernization of its nuclear arsenal is necessary for credible deterrence amid evolving threats from China and Pakistan. However, this must be balanced with restraint, robust command and control, and active participation in arms control and non-proliferation efforts. For UPSC aspirants, the issue exemplifies the intersection of technology, security, diplomacy, and ethical governance—core themes of the GS3 syllabus and recurring focus areas in previous year questions.

Keywords for Quick Revision:

• SIPRI Yearbook 2025

• Nuclear Triad

• Canisterised Missiles

• No First Use (NFU)

• Credible Minimum Deterrence

• Arms Control Crisis

• Second-Strike Capability

• Command and Control

• Regional Security Dilemma

• Technological Multipliers (AI, Cyber, Space)

• Global Nuclear Arms Race

Inclusive Pension System for India

Introduction

The Economic Survey 2025-26 has spotlighted a critical gap in India’s social security framework: pension assets stand at just 17% of GDP, with less than 12% workforce coverage. With the old-age dependency ratio projected to reach 30% by 2050, experts and policymakers are calling for an inclusive national pension system. This issue is directly relevant to the UPSC GS Paper 3 syllabus under “Indian Economy: Inclusive Growth, Social Security, and Pension Reforms”.

Background/Context

• Historical Context: India’s pension landscape has evolved from the Old Pension Scheme (OPS)—a defined benefit plan for government employees—to the National Pension System (NPS), a market-linked, contributory scheme introduced in 2004 for new entrants in government service and later extended to all citizens.

• Current Scenario: Pension assets are only 17% of GDP, far below the 80% seen in OECD countries. Coverage remains limited: only 12% of the workforce and 5.3% of the population are covered by NPS and Atal Pension Yojana (APY) as of FY24. The informal sector, comprising 85% of the workforce and generating over 50% of GDP, is largely outside formal pension nets.

• Policy Developments: Recent initiatives include the Unified Pension Scheme (UPS) for government employees, blending features of OPS and NPS, and NPS Vatsalya for minors, aiming to expand coverage and ensure financial security.

Main Analysis

Key Issues and Challenges

• Low Coverage and Fragmentation: Multiple parallel schemes (NPS, APY, UPS, EPFO) create complexity and inefficiency, with little integration, especially for informal and gig workers.

• Voluntary Opt-In and Low Literacy: Schemes like APY and NPS are voluntary, and low financial literacy—particularly in rural and informal sectors—limits participation.

• Inadequacy of Benefits: The Mercer Global Pension Index shows a decline in India’s adequacy score (from 41.9 in 2023 to 34.2 in 2024), reflecting insufficient post-retirement income.

• Fiscal Sustainability: As the population ages, asset-liability mismatches could threaten the solvency of pension funds.

• Gender and Social Inclusion: While female participation in APY has improved (from 37.9% in FY16 to 52% in FY24), overall gender and social inclusion remain challenges.

Social, Economic, and Political Implications

• Social: Without reform, India faces a potential retirement poverty crisis, undermining the dignity and well-being of the elderly.

• Economic: Inadequate pension coverage increases future fiscal burdens and reduces aggregate savings, affecting long-term growth.

• Political: Pension reform is increasingly a political issue, with demands for assured benefits and portability across states and sectors.

• Global Comparison: Countries like Japan and New Zealand have universal, flat-rate pensions for all workers. Australia integrates retirement planning into school curricula, and the UK uses enrollment to boost participation.

Link with PYQs

• Relevant PYQs:

  • UPSC GS3 2017: “How do subsidies affect the cropping pattern, crop diversity and economy of farmers? What is the significance of crop insurance, minimum support price and food processing for small and marginal farmers?”

    • Connection: Both questions examine social security mechanisms for vulnerable populations and the role of state intervention in ensuring economic security.

  • UPSC Prelims 2017, 2016: Direct questions on NPS and APY highlight the exam’s focus on pension schemes.

    
    

• How UPSC May Frame a Question:

  • “Discuss the need for an inclusive pension system in India in light of demographic changes and rising informalisation of the workforce. Suggest measures to enhance coverage and adequacy.”

  • Model Question: “Critically examine the challenges facing India’s pension sector and evaluate recent reforms like the Unified Pension Scheme in addressing these challenges. Suggest a roadmap for building an inclusive and sustainable pension system.”

Way Forward/Suggestions

• Unified, Tiered Framework: Integrate all pension schemes under a three-tier system—basic mandatory pension, employer-based pensions (opt-out), and voluntary savings—to ensure universal coverage.

• Mandatory Basic Pension: Introduce a guaranteed flat pension for all workers, irrespective of employment status, to prevent old-age poverty.

• Financial Literacy and Behavioural Nudges: Embed pension education in schools (as in Australia), use auto-enrollment and default options (like the UK), and leverage UPI-enabled payments for seamless participation.

• Tech-Driven Accessibility: Utilize digital platforms and mobile apps for easy enrollment and management, inspired by UPI’s success.

• Private Sector Engagement: Encourage private pension funds to supplement public schemes, ensuring competition and long-term liquidity.

• Regulatory Reforms: Establish a clear, comprehensive national pension policy with defined adequacy benchmarks, portability, and robust regulation.

• Gender and Social Inclusion: Design targeted outreach and incentives to boost participation among women and marginalized groups.

Conclusion

India’s demographic transition and the dominance of informal employment make an inclusive, sustainable pension system an urgent policy imperative. Smart reforms—unified regulation, tech-driven outreach, financial literacy, and a robust safety net—can secure financial dignity for retirees and contribute to India’s goal of becoming a developed economy by 2047. For UPSC aspirants, this issue encapsulates the intersection of social security, economic policy, and inclusive growth—core themes in GS Paper 3 and a recurring focus in previous year questions.

Keywords for Quick Revision:

• Inclusive Pension System

• Old-age Dependency Ratio

• National Pension System (NPS)

• Atal Pension Yojana (APY)

• Unified Pension Scheme (UPS)

• Informal Sector

• Financial Literacy

• Adequacy Index

• Fiscal Sustainability

• Universal Basic Pension

• Tech-driven Outreach

• Behavioural Nudges

• Gender Inclusion

• Social Security